The average house price is down £15,000 in the past year

GfK reported consumer confidence down to -39 in July, from –34 in June and the lowest since the data began in 1974. It’s the 11th consecutive drop and “desperately negative,” according to Market News London, in part because during the last recession in the early 1990’s, the index moved in a range between -2 and –34. This was when the pound was being ignominiously chucked out of the ERM,

so for today’s confidence to be lower is really saying something.

Meanwhile, the median pay deal is the same 3.5% in June and 3.8% in the most recent three months. This is considered good because it’s not an acceleration—-but it’s still a wage-push level.
Nationwide reported July house prices down 8.1% y/y, the 9th monthly drop and the biggest since 1991. The drop is acclerating from 6.3% in June. On the 3-month basis annualized, the rate is 19% from 15.6% in June, according to the FT report.

The analysis includes comparison to the early 1990’s, when house prices fell by more. The average house price is down £15,000 in the past year (and now only £11,000 higher than three years ago). The average UK house price is £169,316 in July compared with £172,415 in June and £186,044 last October, Nationwide says. This is still over the average US house price and by a lot.

Bye for Now

Barbara Rockefeller

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