Foreign Exchange - Pounds Sterling and Euro Exchange Rate Outlook
The US dollar exchange rate fell victim to a selling frenzy Friday afternoon that no one can explain. On the hourly chart it is a shocking move, from 1.2560 around 9 am to 1.2884 by 1:30 pm ET, or 324 points in under four hours. The Dow-Jones newswire reported that the move was triggered by the break of a key resistance level that set off a flurry of stop-loss selling, but other than that, the press ignored the move. The WSJ says there was a euro spike (but the US dollar remains set to rise), while the FT website doesn’t even have a currency story update as of 5:30 am ET.
Market News says the move was set off by a big hedge fund trade that triggered a series of cascading stop losses.
On Sunday night as Asia came in, the euro exchange rate took another jump upward to 1.2992, perilously close to the round number 1.3000, but then started to fall back. So far today, the euro is at 1.2781 at 8 am, or down about 50% of the upmove from early Friday. If it continues past the 62% Fibonacci level, about 1.2738, the whole thing could be over.
What is not over is the dollar/yen rise.
On Friday, the US dollar slumped against the yen along with everything else. But as the Asian day progressed and especially after Europe came in today, the dollar spiked to 94.95 - twice. This was a 200+-point rally is under 12 hours, or in the bigger picture view, 780 points since Jan 21, about one month. Again, note the reluctance to print a round number. In this case, the US dollar high is higher than on Friday and over the highest high so far this year (Jan 6 at 94.64).
Might the dollar/yen get back to 110.67 from last August?
Some foreign exchange forecasters say so.
The 50% retracement of the dollar’s downmove/yen upmove from 110 would be 98.86, or nearly 99…. Again, near the key round number of 100.
You have to wonder if foreign exchange traders are fighting their inner OCD, like Mr. Monk.
Pounds to US Dollars = 1.4340
Pounds to Euros = 1.1275
Euro to Pounds = 0.8865
Pounds to Australian Dollars = 2.2100
Bye For Now
Barbara Rockefeller
Foreign Exchange Trading
Forex Trading Reports - Click for a free trial
Buying Euros? Buy Euros at the best euro Rates!
Buying Dollars? Buy US Dollars at the Best Dollar Rates!
Buying Australian Dollars? Buy Australian Dollars at the Best Australian Dollar Rates!
Contact IMS Foreign Exchange + 44 207 183 2790
The US dollar exchange rate fell victim to a selling frenzy Friday afternoon that no one can explain. On the hourly chart it is a shocking move, from 1.2560 around 9 am to 1.2884 by 1:30 pm ET, or 324 points in under four hours. The Dow-Jones newswire reported that the move was triggered by the break of a key resistance level that set off a flurry of stop-loss selling, but other than that, the press ignored the move. The WSJ says there was a euro spike (but the US dollar remains set to rise), while the FT website doesn’t even have a currency story update as of 5:30 am ET.
Market News says the move was set off by a big hedge fund trade that triggered a series of cascading stop losses.
On Sunday night as Asia came in, the euro exchange rate took another jump upward to 1.2992, perilously close to the round number 1.3000, but then started to fall back. So far today, the euro is at 1.2781 at 8 am, or down about 50% of the upmove from early Friday. If it continues past the 62% Fibonacci level, about 1.2738, the whole thing could be over.
What is not over is the dollar/yen rise.
On Friday, the US dollar slumped against the yen along with everything else. But as the Asian day progressed and especially after Europe came in today, the dollar spiked to 94.95 - twice. This was a 200+-point rally is under 12 hours, or in the bigger picture view, 780 points since Jan 21, about one month. Again, note the reluctance to print a round number. In this case, the US dollar high is higher than on Friday and over the highest high so far this year (Jan 6 at 94.64).
Might the dollar/yen get back to 110.67 from last August?
Some foreign exchange forecasters say so.
The 50% retracement of the dollar’s downmove/yen upmove from 110 would be 98.86, or nearly 99…. Again, near the key round number of 100.
You have to wonder if foreign exchange traders are fighting their inner OCD, like Mr. Monk.
Pounds to US Dollars = 1.4340
Pounds to Euros = 1.1275
Euro to Pounds = 0.8865
Pounds to Australian Dollars = 2.2100
Bye For Now
Barbara Rockefeller
Foreign Exchange Trading
Forex Trading Reports - Click for a free trial
Buying Euros? Buy Euros at the best euro Rates!
Buying Dollars? Buy US Dollars at the Best Dollar Rates!
Buying Australian Dollars? Buy Australian Dollars at the Best Australian Dollar Rates!
Contact IMS Foreign Exchange + 44 207 183 2790
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