Friday, March 7, 2008

Trichet - does he still have an ace up his sleeve

If Trichet is going to say something about the Euro, in an attempt to slow its trajectory, it has to be VERY timely. It's like having limited ammunition and the verbal bullet to slow Euro vs US Dollar needs to be spot on or such remarks will fail to get the desired response, if at all. This is clearly a function of diminishing returns where the first time a significant comment is made it has maximum impact but less so thereafter. In this context, expectations were arguably running too high that he would say something different about the Euro. After all, he specifically talked about the US Dollar earlier this week at the Ecofin meeting (and repeated this yesterday). Also, does he really want to be seen complaining about the Euro at an ECB meeting (and a day before payrolls)? It is somewhat of a conspiracy theory but perhaps he wants to use more of an international setting to talk about the Euro, such as this weekend's BIS meeting. This is what he did in January 2004 when he first used the `brutal' language. The press conference on Monday at 11.30am will be interesting. With this in mind however, Trichet knows once again that his silence will deafening.

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