Banks predicting a interest rate cut in Europe before the end of the year

The ECB meets today and all eyes are on the Trichet press conference, as usual. The rate decision was made at 7:45 am ET but as of 8:30, we can’t find the news. This happens every time—and we wonder why it’s not available in Reuters, Market News, Bloomberg, et al.

Bloomberg reports that all 58 of the economists it surveys say the ECB will keep rates on hold, with Trichet not heeding the wake-up call of bank failures this week. But economists at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase “this week followed Citigroup in predicting a interest rate cut in Europe before the end of the year.”

Yesterday the head of the pan-EU employers' federation BusinessEurope said the ECB should loosen monetary policy in the early part of 2009 since inflation and growth are set to slow markedly in the coming months. How sedate.

In economic data, EMU industrial producer prices fell 0.5% in Aug from a rise of 1.3% in July (revised). The rise is 8.5% y/y for Aug after 9.2% in July.