Thursday, October 16, 2008

Buying Euros - watch the 1.3650 pivot against the US Dollar Exchange Rate


Euro Exchange Rate Outlook : The US dollar appears a little stronger this morning against the majors, with the euro exchange rate having dipped to 1.3347 from 1.3624 at 6 am ET yesterday. But this disguises a lot of choppiness. After the close yesterday, the euro rose from 1.3440 to 1.3517 and then fell again during Asian hours to 1.3343-only to rise back to 1.3518 by 7:40 am ET. This surpasses the interim high late yesterday and so is cause for concern, although we won’t get worried until the euro exchange rate matches a pivot level around 1.3650.

The US dollar to Japanese Yen is also soft as the US day begins, having firmed yesterday from 101.12 to 99.24 overnight. Fear of today’s US data and stock market are pressuring the dollar to Japanes yen higher 100.77 so far today, seemingly on the idea that the US stock index futures, which are rising this morning, will lead the dollar. This may be correct - currency traders are in thrall to global stock indices these days. Bloomberg says “The Japanese Yen weakened on speculation that investors will slow carry trade reversals.” That takes a minute to digest. Sterling, likewise, looks heavy on the re-emergence of risk aversion ands presumably the unwinding of quickie carry trades. Exchange Rate for buying euros against the pound is currently 1.2800

Buy For Now

Barbara Rockefeller
Forex Trading Reports

Buying Euros, Buy Euros at the Best Exchange Rates call

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